Analysts have speculated about how the retirement of the Boomer generation will affect demand for financial assets. The Congressional Budget Office published a background paper this week which considered this issue. The paper concludes that Boomers won't sell assets very rapidly to finance retirement on account of several factors.
1. Boomers will be careful -- they are concerned that they might live longer than expected or might face higher than anticipated medical costs.
2. Boomers desire to transfer assets to the next generation, which should also blunt asset sales.
3. Since the wealthiest one percent of Americans own about one-third of the nation's financial assets and, for the most part, the very wealthy don't sell assets to finance retirement, this asset concentration will help to keep demand steady.
4. Many Boomers may work longer than they otherwise would have due to recent losses of retirement assets due to the financial crisis (but the empirical evidence on this point is inconclusive and the impact might be small).
The CBO conclusion:
"Although the retirement of the baby boomers is not likely to cause a large decline in aggregate demand for assets, several economic studies suggest that the retirement and aging of baby boomers could cause a temporary decrease in asset prices. ... Empirical evidence, however, has not revealed much connection between demographic trends and the changes observed in financial markets."